Bookings flow straight from the rates you set — 1–2% of follows book, no capacity cap. The top of funnel is genuinely healthy: a real 70% show rate, cold killed. The shift this week: your first 2 closes landed (6/30, ~$7.7k cash) — but both from follow-up on existing leads, not fresh ad bookings. So the fresh funnel still hasn't proven it closes; the 25% close rate below is the aspiration the maturing pipeline now has to hit.
Two engines that don't share a path until Bookings. Each stage shows Base → Optimistic and the conversion rate from the prior step. Every number falls out of the rates directly — no capacity throttle. Tags mark whether each rate is real, your input, measured, or modeled.
Revenue = closes × $12,500; cash = 50% collected. ROAS shown on cash and is media-spend-only (excludes labor / tech / refunds). Offer rate 70% (measured 69%); close rate 25% (your input — not yet proven on the fresh funnel). Monthly = weekly × 4.33.
Target: 46 booked and 35 shows per week between Fiona & you. Bars = Base → Optimistic.
At 2% follow→booking (Optimistic) you reach ~91% of the booked target and 84% of shows — genuinely close. The last stretch comes from either a touch more follow volume or nudging the show rate above 70%. At 1% (Base) you're at roughly half. So the target is a follow-volume × booking-rate problem now, not a reach one.
6/30 broke the zero: two closes — $2.8k now / $8k split-pay (a re-engaged IG lead) and $997 + $4,901.50 (a reassigned Tier-1 lead) — $7.7k cash, $21.6k contracted. Both came from follow-up on existing / orphaned leads, not fresh ad bookings. So the fresh funnel still hasn't proven it closes. The 25% close rate is the aspiration; the ~44 shows / 24 offers already in the pipe are the near-term proof. Working that pipe is the highest-value lever — not more reach.
The whole projection rides on 1–2% of follows becoming booked calls — Base vs Optimistic is a clean 2× swing on the entire funnel. This is no longer an assumption you take on faith: the new Weekly Funnel tab reports the real follow→booking % each day. Early read: it's running below 1% so far, so Base is the honest planning case until the DM engine proves it can hit 2%.
Show→offer came in at a healthy 69% on the June closer reconciliation (used 70% here) — no longer a guess. Of the people who show, ~7 in 10 are qualified enough to pitch. Keep the pipeline stages tagged so it stays a live number.
RT-warm shows at a real 70% (16 of 23 resolved June calls). Killing cold — 26% show, financial-DQs — was the right call. The people this config books actually show up; the leak is below the show line, not above it.
| Funnel step | Rate | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Spend → impressions | ~$36 CPM | Live 7-day, blended |
| Impressions → profile views | 4.9% | MEASURED · live follower ads |
| Profile views → follows | 33.7% | MEASURED · budget-weighted |
| Follows → DM booking | 1% / 2% | YOUR INPUT · straight from rate, uncapped |
| RT-warm cost per booking | $63.25 | REAL · June $1,897.56 ÷ 30 booked |
| Booking → show | 70% flat | REAL / YOUR INPUT · not varied |
| Show → offer | 70% | MEASURED · 69% on June closer reconciliation |
| Offer → close | 25% flat | YOUR INPUT · first 2 closes 6/30; unproven on fresh funnel |
| Revenue → cash | 50% | YOUR INPUT · balance on plan |
Front-of-funnel counts deterministic from live Meta budgets (account …4741) & measured efficiencies. Bookings flow directly from the follow→booking rate with no capacity cap. Show/offer data pulled from the Bookings Log (Jun 1 → Jul 1); follow→booking is now tracked live in the Weekly Funnel tab. ROAS is media-spend-only (excludes labor, tech, refunds) — for reference, June's actual first-2-closes ROAS was ~1.15× revenue / 0.41× cash against a full month of spend. Operational note: your original Q2 and the new “200/d” both run Buy-land-DR on the RE audience — mild self-competition; running the new one Broad + AI only would give cleaner incremental reach.